They withheld giving the coalition intelligence and otherwise hedged their bets as a result. Terrified of him by years of random and wanton brutality, many Iraqi citizens continued to fear his return even as 150,000 coalition forces occupied their country. The other main psychological effect of Saddam’s capture is on the general Iraqi population. And the coalition plans to return sovereignty to Iraqis next summer, making it harder to turn anti-Americanism into the rallying ideology for the resistance.
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Moreover, economic recovery is proceeding – even if slowly. Now, they have lost their leader and his two sons. They may have some support among the general population, particularly in Sunni regions, but not a considerable amount given their lack of any appealing ideology and the atrocities they perpetrated on the Iraqi people for decades. Their numbers are limited to probably 5,000 to 10,000 fighters.
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Other Baathist leaders and hard-core loyalists still have reason to fight on, of course. Saddam’s arrest may not totally reverse that, but at a minimum it levels out the playing field. The resistance was starting to gain the psychological upper hand in recent weeks. helicopters and Italian peacekeepers, in November. That was particularly true after their string of deadly attacks, largely against U.S. His ability to elude capture undoubtedly gave a sense of optimism and momentum to resistance fighters. As long as he was free, issuing audio tapes and frustrating coalition forces, Saddam was a symbol of resistance and defiance against the United States. Since psychology matters a great deal in all war, and particularly in insurgencies, these should not be underrated. Moreover, knowing that he was still around, his former loyalists may have naturally fallen into a certain hierarchy, cooperating with each other and avoiding the kind of jockeying for position that often leads to internal conflict in organizations that have lost their top leader.īut the most important effects of Saddam’s capture are principally psychological. We found him with information about some lower-level operatives, suggesting that he was in contact with others who were fighting coalition forces. In this light, it is hard to understand or defend the comment of presidential candidate Howard Dean Monday that Saddam’s capture did not make America safer even opponents of the war, who have a reasonable case, should recognize that at this point eliminating Saddam from the picture improves our prospects for success in Iraq considerably.Īdmittedly, Saddam probably did not play a major role in orchestrating attacks on coalition forces. But the basic structure of the insurgency was in our favor before last weekend, and that is even more the case now. Clearly, if we got Saddam but made no further progress in quelling the insurgency, it would be hard in retrospect to take a great deal of lasting satisfaction in December’s developments.įortunately, it is quite likely that taking Saddam out of the picture will have important effects on the ongoing war.
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It also allows a certain justice for the families of the thousands of American troops who have been killed or injured in America’s two wars against Saddam in the last two decades.īut apart from this important emotional and moral achievement, how much does arresting Saddam change the battlefield environment and the prospects of our mission to stabilize and rebuild Iraq? At one level, we cannot yet know, since the litmus test will be in the weeks and months to come.
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It allows a measure of justice for the hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, Kuwaitis and Iranians who lost family members to his cruelty and military misadventures over the years. Taking Saddam Hussein out of the picture is enormously beneficial. Perhaps he did not expect that it would take four more months to find Saddam, but perseverance on the part of hard-working coalition forces finally paid off. General Raymond Odierno of the 4th Infantry Division on a helicopter ride down from Mosul, I remember him gesturing toward the nearby hills and mountains and villages and guessing that Saddam was indeed nearby. When I was visiting Tikrit on a Defense Department-sponsored delegation in September, accompanied by Maj. How much does it matter that we caught Saddam Hussein, and what if anything useful – apart from bringing him to swift and severe justice – can we do with him? These questions are the two major matters to address in the aftermath of his impressive capture by soldiers of the 4th Infantry Division and other American units last weekend near Tikrit, Iraq.įirst, a quick personal note.